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Major risks and flooding on Tuesday

The forecast models raised the bar for severe weather in Minnesota on Tuesday. A flood watch was added to the mix Tuesday for most of central and northeastern Minnesota, including the greater Twin Cities area.

Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms will hit Minnesota late Monday through Tuesday. The first wave of storms will concentrate on southern Minnesota on Monday evening. Then multiple waves of storms roam our landscape as the low Tuesday moves through Minnesota.

There is a slight risk of severe storms in southern Minnesota on Monday evening, a marginal risk for the Twin Cities. The best chance for severe weather is Monday evening south of the Twin Cities in southeastern Minnesota.

Risk areas for severe weather 2

Risk areas for severe weather through Monday night.

NOAA/Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA’s latest HRRR model, run late Monday afternoon, shows scattered storms developing across southern Minnesota Monday evening. The best chance for storms around the Twin Cities favors the hours after about 10 p.m. until midnight.

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NOAA HRRR model 2

NOAA HRRR model between Monday 7:00 PM and Tuesday 1:00 AM.

NOAA via tropical facts

Stormy Tuesday

To call it Stormy Tuesday might be an understatement. Multiple waves of storms will hit Minnesota on Tuesday. The first wave will likely roll into the Twin Cities from southern Minnesota on Tuesday morning.

We may be able to take a break from the storm waves at midday. But a second wave of storms will likely develop in southern Minnesota in the early afternoon hours and move northeast toward the greater Twin Cities area by late afternoon into Tuesday evening.

NOAA’s latest MAM 3 km model shows the two main storm waves moving into the Northeast on Tuesday.

NOAA NAM 3 km model 2

NOAA NAM 3km model between 7am and 7pm Tuesday.

NOAA via tropical facts

Serious risk

Much of southeastern Minnesota to Wisconsin is under an enhanced (Category 3 of 5) severe risk zone on Tuesday. The Twin Cities fall under a small (category 2 of 5) risk area with a marginally severe risk if you travel north and west.

Risk areas for severe weather

Risk areas for severe weather Tuesday.

NOAA/Twin Cities National Weather Service

All forms of severe weather are possible on Tuesday. That means severe weather warnings and warnings are likely. Particularly south and east of the Twin Cities, damaging winds and hail, flooding rainfall and even a few strong tornadoes are possible.

Flood watch

This system drags a large amount of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This means that storms sometimes cause heavy downpours. In areas where multiple storms hit, flash flooding is a real possibility.

Includes the cities of Stillwater, St Paul, Monticello, Hutchinson, Center City, Elk River, Gaylord, Litchfield, Little Falls, Blaine, Chanhassen, Hudson, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Chaska, River Falls, Princeton, Shakopee, Hastings, Cambridge, Osceola, Victoria, Minneapolis and Mora

308 PM CDT Mon May 20, 2024

…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL LAST TUESDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall remains possible.

* WHERE…Parts of Minnesota, including the following areas: Anoka, Benton, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti, Kanabec, McLeod, Meeker, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Ramsey, Scott, Sherburne, Sibley, Stearns, Washington and Wright and Wisconsin, including the following areas, Pierce, Polk and St. Croix.

* WHEN…From Tuesday morning to late Tuesday evening.

* IMPACT…Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Floods can occur in poor drainage and in urban areas.

The flood watch includes most of northeastern Minnesota.

Flood Watch for Northeastern Minnesota

Flood watch for northeastern Minnesota Tuesday.

Duluth National Weather Service

Includes the cities of Pine River, Superior, Hill City, Aitkin, Pine City, Hinckley, Walker, Brainerd, Duluth and Grantsburg

304 PM CDT Mon May 20, 2024

..FLOOD WATCH OPERATING FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE…In Minnesota, Crow Wing, Pine, Carlton, southern St. Louis, Aitkin and Cass Counties and Wisconsin, Burnett and Douglas Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the St. Croix Band in Burnett County, the Fond du Lac Band and the Mille Lacs Band, Big Sandy Lake, East Lake, Hinckley and Lena Lake areas.

* WHEN…From Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning. * IMPACT…Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches appear likely in and near the monitored zone. A few forecast models are predicting local precipitation totals of 4 to 8 inches Tuesday!

NOAA NAM 3 km model precipitation output

NOAA NAM 3 km model precipitation output Thursday.

NOAA via Crucial Weather

So get ready for an active Tuesday. We may see multiple types of severe weather.