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Don’t buy a house in these five American cities until after the 2024 election between Trump and Biden

BrianAJackson/Getty Images/iStockphoto

BrianAJackson/Getty Images/iStockphoto

Presidents have no more direct control over the real estate market than they do the stock market, but politics and election results impact every facet of the American economy – including real estate values.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden have vastly different policies and philosophies on taxes, trade, spending and, perhaps most importantly, regulation, all of which could signal a shift in the fortunes of real estate markets in a handful of major U.S. towns.

Watch: Barbara Corcoran: 3 Cities to Invest in Real Estate Now Before Prices Skyrocket

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If you’re considering buying in one of the following markets as a homeowner, investor, or both, consider waiting until after the election unless you absolutely can’t wait.

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phoenix

According to the BBC, Arizona is one of six states that will determine the outcome of the November election – and interestingly, the election could determine the future of the real estate market in the state’s capital.

“Phoenix has seen significant fluctuations in the housing market recently, partly due to economic uncertainty,” said Colten Claus, associate broker at 8z Real Estate. “Waiting until after the election could provide more stability and clearer economic policies that could impact real estate values. Potential buyers should monitor the market closely and consider the long-term economic prospects before making a purchase.”

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Miami

The stakes of the November election are even higher for an international city like Miami.

“Miami’s real estate market is heavily influenced by international investment and tourism, both of which can be affected by political changes,” Claus said. “The outcome of the election could lead to shifts in immigration policies, trade agreements and economic strategies that impact the local market. It would be wise to wait for clarity after the election before buying in Miami.”

There’s also the title insurance crisis that continues to grip the state and makes home ownership more challenging and expensive. With solvency questions swirling around the state-mandated Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, Florida’s insurance system could be looking for a federal bailout after just one or two devastating summer storms — and whoever owns 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. occupied, will have a lot to say about whether or not that happens.

Vegas

The closures of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven that a city whose economy is as singularly dependent on one industry as Las Vegas is more vulnerable to political turbulence than more economically diverse metropolises.

“Las Vegas is highly dependent on the tourism and entertainment industry, which can be volatile and sensitive to economic policy and consumer confidence,” Claus said. “The election outcome could have a significant impact on these sectors and on the housing market.”

During a recent campaign stop in Nevada, Biden touted his plan to expand low-income housing tax credits, which developers can use to build affordable units, while noting that the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) criticized Trump for his proposals for cuts to housing allowance. that struggling Nevadans rely on.

It is not important which candidate policy would help or hurt property owners. What’s important is that a change in either direction could have a significant impact on the housing market in a city whose economy is as sensitive as Las Vegas’ – in Sin City, November matters.

“Buyers should consider waiting until after the election to better understand the economic landscape and its potential effects on property values,” Claus said.

Washington, DC

There are few places in America where federal elections are as important as the city where all three branches of power are found.

“The nation’s capital is often subject to significant political and economic fluctuations, especially around election time,” says Jolean Olson of Olson Home Buyers. “Uncertainty surrounding federal policy and potential changes in government leadership could impact the housing market. Waiting until after the election can provide clarity on the direction of federal spending, housing policy and economic stability, allowing buyers to make more informed decisions.”

But more directly: people who cannot telework must live where they work. An administration turnover would bring thousands of President Trump’s new hires to D.C. in search of a place to live during his second term — and that alone is enough to boost demand. In 2016, on the eve of Trump’s election, the Washington Post crunched the numbers and found that even though most of the new hires already lived in DC Metro, the influx of newcomers represented about 5% of new home sales, which inventory levels stressed in what was already a high-demand city.

Detroit

Finally, there is a city whose future depends on funding from state and federal revitalization initiatives.

“While Detroit has made progress in recovering from the economic downturn, it remains vulnerable to political and economic change,” Olson said.

Motor City, for example, received $826 million in federal coronavirus funds, the fifth-highest amount for any city, despite the fact that its population isn’t even in the top 25 — and releasing those funds required a presidential signature. According to the Chicago Fed, Detroit will spend most of it on rebuilding neighborhoods, a boon for homeowners — but that amount could have been much lower or higher under a different president.

“The outcome of the election could influence federal support and policies that impact the city’s ongoing revitalization efforts,” Olson said. “By waiting to purchase real estate until after the election, buyers can assess the potential impact of new policies on Detroit’s housing market and overall economic health.”

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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Don’t Buy a Home in These 5 US Cities Until After the 2024 Trump-Biden Election